Thursday, March 26, 2009

Trillion with a T

















The national debt is increasing at a rate of over $3 billion per day. From the lows of December 18th, the 10-year and 30-year Treasury bills have risen substantially. December was a panic flight to quality that pushed the 30-year yield to 2.55%. It rose to 3.80% as the panic subsided and investors realized the supply of Treasuries in the next several years will be enormous. The Fed stepped in saying it would buy longer term treasuries which brought yields down sharply. This steep fall in yields was not sustained in the next few days. I believe that much of this is due to concern about the future rate of inflation. If the Fed sustains it's buying for too long, it will fuel inflation. China is talking about scaling back its purchases of US Treasuries. I am sure others will not be far behind.



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