Wednesday, September 17, 2008

What to say

Lehman had its long slow, descent into bankruptcy. It makes you wonder why Bear and not Lehman. Part of it is that Bear failed first. The other is that Lehman's troubles were relatively well known for months and the market had time to absorb the news. If anybody else some better ideas, please comment.

We are seeing the 3 month treasury bond yield at near zero.
When the government can borrow for nearly free and a nominal basis and a negative real interest rate, it's not a good sign. You cannot help but think of Japan when you see the rates this low. There are some parallels, but the actions taken recently have been different than Japan in the 1990s. In Japan, bad banks were propped up by the government. At least the bailouts here seem to be designed so that the common stock holders do not receive much. I believe the goal of the recent bailouts is different than the bailouts in Japan. I hope the goal here is to assist an orderly liquidation of assets rather than to protect the older and established companies and to keep up appearances.

AIG received an $85 billion loan from the Fed in return for 80% of the equity. The Fed now has control over AIG. The effects of this are being felt by the financial markets today.
"Banks abruptly stopped lending to each other or charged exorbitantly high rates Tuesday, threatening to spread the troubles of American International Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. to a broad range of financial institutions and the global economy."

"The depth of the money-market problems became clear at lunchtime in London, when the British Bankers' Association published Tuesday's Libor borrowing costs. Every day, 16 banks report what it would cost them to borrow at certain maturities and currencies. Overnight dollar Libor soared to 6.4375% from 3.10625%, the largest jump on record. Three-month dollar Libor rose to 2.876% from 2.816%."

If you are relatively informed on the recent events, I'd enjoy having a conversation about it to see what you think.

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